The Next Q Clearance
By Nick Reese
My father-in-law is a quantum physicist and every time I write something about quantum, I hear him in my head. I’m worried that the following question will sound like nails on the chalkboard to him but I’m going with it anyway. I’ve been married for over 12 years, so I feel safe.
What do nuclear power and quantum computing have in common? Atomic particles. Significant power. Extraordinarily complex math. Potentials for danger to society... So, it turns out they share quite a bit. But there is another aspect of the development of nuclear power and weaponry that provides a useful parallel for the development of quantum computing: the development of nuclear regulations and Q clearance, which provide a roadmap for how controls around quantum computing research and development may evolve.
The power and potential of nuclear power and energy was recognized decades ago as something that needed to be controlled and regulated. It feels painfully obvious to say because we are all so used to it. Nuclear power is one of the original dual use technologies in the modern era. Some may have seen the Cold War era videos of children in schools hiding under their desks to “escape” the effects of a nuclear blast. The end of World War II and the Cold War made certain that each of us understood the dangers of nuclear weapons —but that’s only half of the dual use story. The other half is about heating water to steam and turning a turbine. Turning a turbine with steam is hardly technological news, but how to heat the water to make the steam is a perplexing question. Electricity generation would be a snap if not for that pesky requirement for heat. But nuclear fuels create heat without the consequence of dirty pollution. However, events like Chernobyl and Three Mile Island have also conditioned us to proceed with caution when it comes to nuclear energy.
It should be no surprise that if you wish to operate a nuclear energy facility, you are subject to strict regulations under the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, established in 1974 and the lesser-known Q clearance (no, this is not a reference to QAnon, but James Bond’s gadget-wielding friend comes to mind). The Q clearance is a government security clearance at the Top-Secret level for individuals who have a need to access specifics about the construction and operation of nuclear weapons. Established in 1954, the Q clearance is designed to control the distribution of advanced nuclear weapons technology by vetting those who have access. It also limits access to US citizens.
In both cases, nuclear technology was recognized decades ago as a dual use technology whose applications and impact were so significant that the most advanced research and technology needed to be heavily guarded. Security clearances on the weapons side, regulation on the civil side.
Few would argue with these restrictions because we all have decades of knowledge to pull from when considering what could happen if this information was freely available.
There’s another technology today that could have similar impacts and may parallel that of nuclear technology. Quantum information science (QIS), and more specifically quantum computing, are in the earliest days of development. There are functioning quantum computers today, mostly built by the private sector in the US. Funding has poured into quantum projects because of the potential for what quantum computers will one day be capable of. Quantum computers will, once built to sufficient capacity, be able to break the current asymmetric, factorization-based encryption in use across the entire internet. Encryption that would take a classical computer over 10 billion (not kidding) years to solve will be solved in seconds or minutes by quantum computers. This is a capability that any nation-state would move mountains to have, for obvious reasons such as:
Breaking encrypted communications.
Convergence potential with AI and other emerging technologies.
Discovery of new materials.
A partridge in a pear tree.
On the “civil” side, quantum computers can handle complexity that is beyond the reach of classical computers. Examples include quantum systems, biology, and meteorology. A quantum computer that can simulate complex supply chains and identify efficiencies would create billions in commercial value. Advanced pharmaceuticals that result from the simulations of molecular systems could change medicine forever. However, that same simulation capability could be used to create biological weapons or to attack supply chains. This is a capability that any corporation would move mountains to have for obvious reasons such as:
Supply chain optimization.
Discovery of new pharmaceuticals.
Complex system simulations.
The similarities between the early days of nuclear weaponization and energy and quantum cryptography and simulation are striking. In both cases, the same technology could be used for a weapon of statecraft and for civil purposes. There are perils in both cases and the science behind the research is some of the most advanced in the world. Some may argue with the idea that a quantum computer is a weapon but in an era of information and data dominance, having control over the world’s encrypted information can also be weaponized. The potential for quantum simulation to transform our world for good is clear but so is the potential for harm and abuse. Knowing all of this, it is time to call for the real Q clearance, one for quantum information science.
Funding by the Chinese government on quantum information science is opaque conferring a real risk on the West. According to a 2023 McKinsey report, the US public sector invested $1.8 billion in quantum research while the Chinese government announced $15.3 billion. That is of course just what they are declaring publicly, and the actual number is likely much higher. With that much of a gap in investment (that we can see), can we be sure that China hasn’t already achieved a quantum computer sufficient to break encryption? Unlike a nuclear weapon, you wouldn’t want others to know you have a crypto-analytically relevant quantum computer so you can use it effectively. The Chinese government is also actively stealing intellectual property from the US on key technologies, quantum included. The “steal now, decrypt later” is a well-known Chinese tactic that means that the Chinese are stealing data they know they can’t read today but will hold until they have a quantum computer that can break it. Are we certain they aren’t reading it now? Are you willing to bet your national security on it? The longer quantum information stays unprotected; the more R&D shortcuts China gets to take.
Some believe that a quantum computer of such capacity is decades away. Others believe it will never be built. Perhaps it has already been built. The strategic advantage bestowed by a crypto-analytically relevant quantum computer would be akin to the British and Polish breaking of the German ENIGMA machine. That advantage was so great that they were willing to allow attacks they could have prevented to protect the code (COVENTRY). If they have not already built it, the truth is that we are always one breakthrough away from the accepted timeline collapsing. While we still have time, we need to be doing two things:
Prioritizing the transition to post-quantum cryptographic standards. This is the defensive side.
Create an analogous security clearance to nuclear Q clearances for the most important quantum information science research. This is the offensive side.
Protecting nuclear information is an obvious necessity to most people but quantum is so early in its development, that many do not feel the same way about it. There is real power in quantum research and just the same way that our society decided to protect nuclear information, we need to do the same for quantum. The roadmap is already there, and the imperative is closing in on us every day.
Intriguing and a bit terrifying at the same time. Thanks Nick. (Oh, and good luck with your father in-law. I'm sure he's proud ;)